Statistics: Expect extremes

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The climate is changing. Because it is constantly changing over the years, it is difficult to calculate what used to be the norm - and how the present deviates from it. Special statistical tricks help here.

The winter of 2023/24 was extremely rainy. In some regions of Germany the sun didn't appear for what felt like weeks. Areas of land that were actually meadows and fields turned into lakes. What caused problems for many also had something positive: the groundwater levels recovered, which laid a good basis for the coming summer. Because who knows whether this will bring new record temperatures again?

This question can be answered by Prof. Dr. Axel books don't answer. But it can calculate how much more likely certain extreme weather events are today compared to 100 years ago. Bücher is a mathematician at the Ruhr University in Bochum and a member of the “ClimXtreme” project, which he joined while working at the Heinrich Heine University in Düsseldorf and which he is now continuing in Bochum. The interdisciplinary research network aims to understand the occurrence of extreme weather so that society can better prepare for it. And that has a lot to do with mathematics, more specifically statistics.

More (german only)

Axel Buecher
© Roberto Schirdewahn
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